This item was published during the term of a previous administration that ended in April 2007
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Household Projections for Scotland
23/04/2004
Household projections for Scotland up to the year 2016
are published today. The projections are based on the 2002
mid-year household estimates, and are being initially
released as web tables in the data library section of the
housing statistics branch website (
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/stats/housing/hsbref).
The release presents the projections of household
numbers for local authorities and structure plan areas. It
includes projections by household type and age-group of
head of household.
The projections only give an indication of future
numbers of households if past trends were to continue. They
are not intended as definitive predictions of what will
happen.
The main points from the 2002-based projections are:
- The total number of households in Scotland is
projected to increase by 7 per cent (164,000) from 2.22
million in 2002 to 2.38 million in 2016.
- Increases are projected in all household types,
except those consisting of two or more adults with
child(ren). Households of this type are projected to fall
by 120,000, making up 15 per cent of all households in 2016
compared to 21 per cent in 2002.
- One person households account for an estimated 33
per cent of all households in 2002 and this is projected to
increase by 193,000 to 39 per cent of all households by
2016.
- One person households with child(ren) account for
around 6 per cent of all households in 2002; this is
projected to increase by 29,000 to 7 per cent of all
households by 2016 (an increase of 20 per cent).
- Although the number of households is projected to
rise, the private household population is projected to
fall, by around 119,000, from 4.95 million in 2002 to 4.83
million in 2016, in line with the projected fall in total
population.
- Hence, the average household size is projected to
fall from 2.2 persons in 2002 to 2.0 persons in 2016.
- The projections for West Lothian, East Lothian and
Stirling show the largest percentage increase in total
households between 2002 and 2016, with projected increases
of 23 per cent (15,380), 17 per cent (6,510) and 17 per
cent (6,040) respectively.
- Dundee City and Inverclyde are the only areas
projected to have a decrease in total households, 5 per
cent (3,450) and 1 per cent (290).
The limitations of household projections must be
fully recognised. A projection is an analysis showing what
might happen if certain assumptions are made - in the case
of these household projections, the assumption is that past
trends in household formation continue. The projections are
not, therefore, policy-based definitive predictions of what
the Government expects to happen. It is the responsibility
of each local authority to interpret the projections,
together with local social and economic factors, in order
to assess the implications for their own areas. Where this
suggests an increase in demand for new housing, it will be
for individual authorities to make provision for new
housing land through the development plan process. Where
appropriate, neighbouring authorities will work together to
achieve this through joint structure plan arrangements. The
projections will also feed into the housing needs
assessments local authorities will require to do as part of
the preparation of their local housing strategies.
Household projections are produced by the Scottish
Executive every two years and are based on population
projections from the General Register Office for Scotland,
together with information from past population Censuses on
household composition. Since the household projections are
based on the population projections, the assumptions used
for the population projections, such as future migration,
fertility and mortality, will have an effect on the
household projections. Projections for areas with small
populations tend to be less reliable than those for areas
with large populations, especially the further into the
future the projections are taken.
The household projections contained in the bulletin
update the 2000 based projections published in August
2002. The current 2002 based figures were produced using
information on households from the 1991 and 2001 Census of
Population data, together with the latest set of population
projections from GROS.
The 2002-based projections are being initially released
as web-based tables in the data library section of the
housing statistics branch website (
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/stats/housing/hsbref).
A printed bulletin will be published in due course.