This item was published during the term of a previous administration that ended in April 2007
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Teacher workforce planning 2004-05
24/02/2004
The results of the latest round of teacher workforce
planning are published today.
The National Statistics publication gives the following information
from the planning process:
pupil and teacher number
projections
information on the numbers of teachers
joining and leaving the teacher
workforce
information on the number of vacancies in
schools
an estimate of the age-profile of the
teacher workforce
advice provided on the future requirement
for newly qualified teachers
Pupil Projections
Projected numbers of pupils were created using the
population projections obtained from the Government
Actuary's Department, based on the 2001 population census.
They are therefore not a prediction of what will happen,
but a projection based on assumptions about fertility,
migration, etc.
Main findings were:
The number of pupils in pre-school
centres was projected to decrease from 58,000
(September 2002) to around 53,000 in 2013. This
represents a fall of eight per cent and is in
line with the expected decrease in the number
of children of pre-school age
The number of pupils in publicly funded
primary schools was projected to continue to
fall steadily from 414,000 in September 2002 to
353,000 in 2010, down 15 per cent, and to
347,000 in 2013, 16 per cent less than
2002
The number of pupils in publicly funded
secondary schools was projected to increase
from 317,000 in September 2002 to more than
320,000 in 2003. The number of pupils is then
projected to fall steadily to 268,000 in 2013,
15 per cent less than in 2002
The numbers of pupils in publicly funded
special schools and independent schools were
both projected to fall, in line with the
anticipated decrease in the number of children
of school age. The projections take account of
changing trends in the mainstreaming of special
school pupils
Teacher Projections
Projected teacher figures were based on the projected
pupilnumbers, taking into account different pupil teacher
ratios in different size schools, and information from the
September 2002 School Census. The figures were then
increased to incorporate the extra teachers needed
to implement the agreement 'A Teaching Profession for the
21
st Century' (the teachers pay and conditions
agreement), and the Executive's Partnership Agreement
commitment to increase teacher numbers to 53,000 teachers
by 2007.
Projections beyond 2007 are based on
maintaining the pupil/teacher ratios for that year.
Main findings were:
The number of FTE teachers in publicly funded
pre-school centres was projected to initially remain
fairly constant around the September 2002 level of
1,600, before falling to 1,500 by 2013
The number of FTE teachers in publicly funded
primary schools was projected to rise steadily from
23,000 in 2002 to 24,000 in 2007, before potentially
falling to 22,000 by 2013
The number of FTE teachers in publicly funded
secondary schools was projected to rise steadily from
25,000 in 2002 to 26,000 in 2007, before potentially
falling to 24,000 by 2013
In the publicly funded special sector, teacher
numbers were expected to decrease gradually in line
with the projected gradual decline in the number of
pupils at special schools. The projections took account
of changing trends in the mainstreaming of special
school pupils
Man findings of a snap-shot survey from education
authorities were:
There were 759 vacancies onFriday September 19
th 2003, which was approximately two per cent of the
full teaching complement. Less than a third of
these had been vacant for more than three
months
The highest vacancy rates were in general
science (four per cent, although this involves
small numbers), mathematics, learning support
and in special schools (each two per
cent)
As part of the new annual staff census, information
on ability to teach through Gaelic and Roman Catholic
approval is collected for all staff. This will
enable supply in these areas to be modelled.
The survey of local authorities' expected
need for these teachers was therefore discontinued.
Requirement for newly qualified teachers
The Partnership Agreement committed the Executive to
provide 53,000 teachers by 2007. This becomes the main
driver in the workforce planning model. The number of new
teachers each year has therefore been planned taking into
consideration practical limitations of teacher
training establishments and the need to ensure enough
teachers to meet the 2006 class contact time reductions of
'A Teaching Profession for the 21
st Century'.
Main results were:
The requirement for additional primary and pre-school
teachers will rise to 1,400 in 2005, and then to 1,700 in
both 2006 and 2007. The number then falls to about
1,000 in 2008 before rising each year due to the age
profile of the teaching workforce.
Reductions in class sizes in P1 could be met
from within these numbers
The requirement for additional secondary teachers
will increase to 1,300 in 2005, 1,700 in 2006 and 1,500 in
2007. The number then falls to about 900 in 2008
before rising each year until 2001 due to the age profile
of the teaching workforce. Reductions in class sizes in S1
and S2 maths and English could be met from within these
numbers