The Scottish Government

This item was published during the term of a previous administration that ended in April 2007

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Flood risk outlined in climate change report

06/02/2004

A report published today gives the first ever regional breakdown of the likelihood of flooding in Scotland during this century.

'Climate Change: Review of Levels of Protection Offered by Flood Prevention Schemes', was commissioned by the Scottish Executive and is the first study to give a regional perspective of the impact of climate change on Scotland's rivers and coast.

Deputy Environment Minister Allan Wilson said:

"The Scottish Executive is committed to protecting our coastal communities from the impacts of climate change.

"There is a wide consensus that climate change will adversely impact on coastal and river floods in Scotland. This research confirms that view but indicates that some areas of Scotland will be more affected than others.

"As part of our drive to tackle the problem of climate change we launched our "Do a Little, Change a Lot" (DALCAL) campaign in 2001.

"By taking simple steps we can all make a difference - reducing the energy we consume by walking short distances rather than using the car or not over-filling the kettle are the kind of positive and easy steps we can take.

"Our ongoing flood protection programme is protecting homes and businesses from flooding. The information gained from this latest research will help us better manage the risk of flooding in Scotland over the coming century ."

The key findings from the research study are:

• The impacts of climate change on river floods may be felt to a greater extent in the east and to a slightly lesser extent elsewhere, with the exception of the north and north-west where changes are likely to be relatively small. By the 2080s, major flooding is twice as likely to occur in eastern Scotland than at present and although there will also be an increase in the north and north east of the country it will be less dramatic than in the east.

• Coastal water levels that were evaluated in 1990s as having a 1% annual likelihood of occurring are projected to become more than 3 times more likely by the 2050s. Again, there is a distinct regional variation with the west coast least affected, about 2 times more likely, but the north most affected where such levels could be 10 times more likely by the 2050s.

• Although the changes in the likelihood of extreme coastal water levels seem quite dramatic, it is suggested that defences would only need to be heightened by between about 5cm to 18cm to return the level of protection back to the 1990s level. These changes are less than reported in the earlier work. It should be recognised however that in Scotland there are relatively few coastal defence schemes compared with other parts of the UK.

• The present lack of suitable climate change data e.g. changes to spatial and temporal characteristics of extreme rainfall events, wave regimes and surges, has allowed only rather simplistic approaches to be used in the attempt to quantify the likelihood of future extreme floods. The suggested changes should therefore only be interpreted as indicative provisional estimates, and the inclusion of significant uncertainties needs to be recognised.

• As a minimum adaptive measure it is suggested that future schemes should be designed to be capable of having defences further raised or enhanced. It should be noted that present defences may have reached or be approaching the end of their design life by the 2050s, at which point replacement or remedial work would have to be considered anyway.

Climate change will have wide ranging implications for people, the economy, and the natural and built environment of countries across the world. Climate Change scenarios predict increased rainfall in Scotland and this could lead to an increased risk of flooding.

This study was commissioned to gain a clearer understanding of the implications of climate change in Scotland in relation to the levels of protection offered by Scottish river and coastal flood prevention schemes taking into account the findings of the UKCIP02 scenarios. The study builds on earlier work in 2001 carried out by the Babtie Group for the Scottish Executive using the UKCIP98 scenarios.

The researchers reviewed the climate change scenarios in relation to increased flooding risk in Scotland, and examined the implications of climate change for the level of protection offered by existing flood schemes (in terms of flood risk). The report provides an estimate of the implications of projected future climate change on the levels of protection offered by Scottish river and coastal flood prevention schemes.

Climate Change: Review of Levels of Protection Offered by Flood Prevention Schemes UKCIP02 Update (2003) prepared by Babtie Group for the Scottish Executive is available from the Stationery Office, price £5.00 or online at http://www.scotland.gov.uk/00018789 or http://www.scotland.gov.uk/library5/environment/ccrlp-00.asp

In addition to the climate change report, the Executive today published Scottish Planning Policy 7 (SPP7). This will give Scotland's local authorities stricter guidance to avoid more development in areas at risk from flooding.