This item was published during the term of a previous administration that ended in April 2007
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Population projections for Scotland
30/01/2004
Figures issued today by the Registrar General show the
projected changes in population for the administrative
areas of Scotland, by age and sex.
Commenting on the results, Registrar General Duncan
Macniven said that: These latest projections reflect recent
demographic trends in individual Council and Health Board
areas. Although at the Scotland level the population is
projected to continue declining slowly, the regional
pattern of projected change is variable with some areas
experiencing projected population increases.
The figures show that: the total population of Scotland
is projected to fall from 5.05 million in 2002 to 4.94
million in 2018 (falling below 5 million in 2009); within
Scotland, Lothian (plus 7 per cent) and Forth Valley (plus
4 per cent) health board areas show the greatest projected
increases in population between 2002 and 2018; amongst the
council areas, the greatest projected increase in
population during the period 2002 to 2018 is in West
Lothian with 15 per cent, followed by East Lothian with 12
per cent. Eilean Siar and Dundee City have the largest
projected decreases at 17 and 14 per cent,
respectively.
The Government Actuary in consultation with, and at the
request of, the Registrar General for Scotland prepares
national population projections for Scotland and the
assumptions on which they are based. The 2002-based
national population projections were announced in a news
release issued by the Registrar General for Scotland on 18
December 2003. Projected populations for administrative
areas of Scotland, consistent with the national
projections, have been prepared by the Registrar General
for Scotland and are the subject of this news release.
The latest projection is based on the Registrar
General's mid-year population estimates for 2002 and
replace the previous 2000-based sub-national population
projections. The projections are the result of assumptions
made about future fertility, mortality and migration
patterns based on past trends. Therefore the projections
are not a prediction of what will happen, but simply a
projection of what would be the outcome on the basis of
particular assumptions.
This is a National Statistics publication. National
statistics are produced to high professional standards set
out in the National Statistics Code of Practice. They
undergo regular quality assurance reviews to ensure that
they meet customer needs. They are produced free from any
political interference.
Enquiries
For information on the availability of more detailed
data and tables, please
contact:
Customer Services
Demography Branch
General Register Office for Scotland
Ladywell House
Ladywell Road
Edinburgh, EH12 7TF
Telephone: 0131 314 4254
Facsimile: 0131 314 4696
E-mail:
customer@gro-scotland.gsi.gov.uk