This item was published during the term of a previous administration that ended in April 2007
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Demographic review focuses on fertility
01/08/2003
Today, the Registrar General for Scotland released his
Annual Review of Demographic Trends.
As well as updating the demographic trends presented in
last year's review, this report focuses on one of the
biggest issues affecting population change in Scotland
today - declining fertility.
The Registrar General, John Randall said:
"Scotland's birth rate has fallen significantly in the
last two decades and it is currently at the lowest level of
any of the countries in the UK. Moreover, Scotland's
population is now declining more because of an excess of
deaths over births than because of net migration loss and
this is projected to continue."
Along with an overview of population change, this year's
review contains two chapters on fertility:
- a detailed examination of recent trends in
Scotland's fertility;
- an article commissioned from Dr Elspeth Graham and
Professor Paul Boyle of St Andrews University, which
places Scotland's fertility in a wider geographical
context, discusses the reasons for low fertility, and
addresses the scope for policy intervention drawing on
the experience of other countries.
The report highlights the following:
Population
- Scotland's population fell in the year to 30 June
2002 to 5,054,800 (0.2 per cent down from mid-2001) - a
level last seen in the first half of the 20
th century.
- Scotland has recorded a natural decrease (an excess
of deaths over births) since 1997. The natural decrease
(6,065 in 2001-02) was a larger factor in population
decline than emigration, a pattern which is projected
to continue.
- Scotland's population is getting older and is
projected to continue ageing. Half the population is
now over the age of 39, which is four years older than
the 1991 equivalent.
Fertility
- The total number of births registered in 2002
(51,270) was the lowest total ever recorded. This is
the sixth consecutive year where the total has reached
a new low.
- Falling birth rates reflect the fact that women are
having fewer children and having them later. As a
consequence, average completed family size fell below
two for women born after 1953 and is expected to fall
further for younger women.
- Fertility rates for women in their 20s are little
more than half the rate 40 years ago while rates for
women aged over 30 have steadily increased. * In 2002,
for the first time, fertility rates for women aged
30-34 overtook those for 25-29 year olds.
Mortality
- There were 58,103 deaths in 2002, an increase of
721 compared with 2001.
- Stillbirth, perinatal, and infant mortality rates
continue to fall and are at historically low levels,
but remain above the EU average.
- Expectation of life at birth continues to improve.
The expectation of life for babies born in 2002 is 73.3
for males and 78.8 for females. Despite these
improvements, expectation of life at birth in Scotland
remains one of the lowest in the EU.
- The main causes of death in Scotland are cancers
and heart disease; over the last decade there has been
a big fall in the latter but not the former.
Migration
- Net emigration from Scotland is much lower than 40
years ago and even 15 years ago.
- The pattern of net migration between Scotland and
the rest of the UK varies markedly by age group for
both males and females, with a net inflow peaking at
age 19 and a net outflow peaking at age 23.
- The peak ages for moves within Scotland (between
Council areas) for males and females are the 20s and
30s with large peaks at the student ages (18-22).
Marriages, Divorces and Adoptions
- There were 29,826 marriages registered in 2002,
slightly more than the 29,621 registered the previous
year.
- The average age at first marriage continues to
increase and in 2002 was 31 for males and 29 for
females, four years higher for both than in 1991.
- The number of divorces, while much higher than 30
years ago, has decreased slightly over the past
decade.
- The number of adoptions is 53 per cent lower than
ten years ago and is the lowest total since 1931, the
first full year in which adoptions were
registered.
The Registrar General's Annual Review of Demographic
Trends (ISBN 1-874451-71-0, #6) is available from the
General Register Office for Scotland (GROS) and the GROS
website (www.gro-scotland.gov.uk). The detailed statistical
tables which comprise the bulk of previous Annual Reports
are available by contacting GROS Customer Services on 0131
314 4243.
The 2001 Census contains a wealth of information which
supplements the results presented in this review. The
majority of Census results can be accessed via the SCROL
website (www.scrol.gov.uk) or by contacting GROS Customer
Services.
This is a National Statistics publication. National
Statistics are produced to high professional standards set
out in the National Statistics Code of Practice. They
undergo regular quality assurance reviews to ensure that
they meet customer needs. They are produced free from any
political interference.
For further information on the availability of more
detailed data and tables, please contact:
Customer Services
Demography and Dissemination Branch
General Register Office for Scotland
Ladywell House
Ladywell Road
Edinburgh, EH12 7TF
Telephone: 0131 314 4243
Facsimile: 0131 314 4696
E-mail: customer@gro-scotland.gov.uk