This item was published during the term of a previous administration that ended in April 2007
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First quarter GDP estimates
07/08/2002
Gross Domestic Product in Scotland fell by 0.7 per cent in
the first quarter of 2002 and rose by 0.7 per cent in the 4
quarters to 2002 Q1, according to provisional estimates
released today.
The
main findings of the latest figures are:
- GDP (seasonally adjusted) fell by 0.7 per cent in 2002
Q1. For the UK as a whole GDP rose by 0.2 per cent.
- In the 4 quarters to 2002 Q1, the increase was 0.7 per
cent, compared with the previous 4 quarters (to 2001 Q1).
The equivalent UK figure was 1.6 per cent.
- In the 4 quarters to 2002 Q1, output in the Scottish
service sector grew by 5.7 per cent, compared with a 9.6
per cent drop in the production sector and a 4.1 per cent
drop in construction. The equivalent figures for the UK
were +3.1 per cent (services), -3.7 per cent (production)
and +5.6 per cent (construction).
- In the 4 quarters to 2002 Q1, output in the
Manufacturing sector decreased by 10.6 per cent, compared
with the previous 4 quarters. In 2002 Q1, output decreased
by 4.3 per cent, compared with the preceding quarter. The
equivalent figures for the UK were -4.2 per cent and -1.3
per cent, respectively.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a measure of the value of
goods and services produced by residents, before allowing for
depreciation or capital consumption. Net receipts from
interest, profits and dividends abroad are excluded.
These
quarterly Scottish output-based estimates of GDP are
based on much improved sources. In particular, whereas previous
(annual) estimates of service sector activity relied heavily on
UK indices adjusted by Scotland's relative employment share,
the series are now derived directly from survey returns from
businesses with bases in Scotland. The improved data now
permits the derivation of 7 disaggregated indices of activity
within the service sector (Table 4).
The GDP estimate is calculated by producing a weighted
average of over 350 separate indices (164 of which are in the
production sector). The indices represent changes in the value
added, at constant prices, in the production of goods and
services in individual industries. These industries are
compiled using the standard industrial classification SIC92.
The weights used are proportional to the contribution of each
industry or service to GDP in the base year (1995). Within
production, weights are derived, for the most part, from the
value added to output as measured by the Annual Census of
Production in the base year. Where value added figures are not
available, proxy indicators are used. Over time, the movement
of these proxy indicators may relate less closely to changes in
value added due to efficiency and price changes.
Series are derived from indicators based on data from a wide
range of sources. Examples include: deflated turnover, deflated
production, the amount of a good or service sold or produced
and, for some parts of the public sector, employee numbers.
The indices published within this News Release are grouped
according to the 1992 revised Standard Industrial
Classification. The four broad groupings of industries are
(a)
agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing
(b)
production which comprises: mining and quarrying
industries; energy and water supply; and manufacturing, which
includes: refined petroleum products and nuclear fuel; chemical
and man-made fibres; metal and metal products; engineering and
allied industries; food, drink and tobacco industries;
textiles, footwear, leather and clothing; other
manufacturing.
(c)
construction
(d)
services, which includes: retail and wholesale; hotels
and catering; transport, storage and communication; financial
services; real estate and business services; public
administration, education and health; other services.
The methodology employed to calculate the Scottish estimates
of GDP growth is consistent with that used by other National
Statistics publications in the calculation of Gross Value Added
(GVA) for the UK and, as such, is ESA95 (European System of
Accounts 1995) compliant. An article "Quarterly estimation of
Gross Domestic Product" appeared in
Scottish Economic Statistics, published by the
Scottish Executive in February 2000.
Scottish GDP estimates will generally be less reliable than
the estimates for the UK, primarily because the equivalent UK
figures are produced by balancing 3 independent sets of
estimates (Output (GVA), Income & Expenditure-based
approaches). Furthermore, the survey data tend to be based on
smaller numbers of units, making figures for Scotland more
likely to be subject to small random fluctuations.
Although it is not possible to isolate and quantify the
effect of economic uncertainties following the events of
September 11th, it is likely that there has been a significant
effect on the level on Scottish GDP.
The figures in the News Release incorporate revisions due to
new and revised data, and the updating of seasonal adjustment
factors. The data suppliers have verified these changes. These
are one off revisions. Tables 7 to 11 show details of all
revisions
National Statistics are produced to high professional
standards set out in the National Statistics Code of Practice.
They undergo regular quality assurance reviews to ensure that
they meet customer needs. They are produced free from any
political interference.