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And in 2080, the weather in Scotland will be...
26/04/2002
Scotland's in 2080 will have warmer, wetter winters, less
snowfall and increased flooding, according to a report
published today.
The latest forecast produced for the UK Climate Impacts
Programme also predicts that rising sea levels will threaten
low lying coastal areas.
The report shows how the climate of the UK is already
changing and how this will become more pronounced over the
coming decades. These changes affect Scotland.
Responding, Deputy Minister for Environment and Rural
Development, Allan Wilson, said:
"Scotland's weather is something we all have in common. It
impacts on our lives, our environment, our health, our
prosperity. It affects our businesses, our leisure time, our
agriculture and our infrastructure. In Scotland, we are no
strangers to the misery caused by flooding and, further afield,
weather-related disasters around the world cost thousands of
lives every year.
"Climate change is causing weather patterns to change.
Scientists believe that we are influencing our climate by
burning fossil fuels to supply our energy and transport needs.
We must reduce emissions of the greenhouse gases that are
having such a profound effect on the climate.
"In Scotland we have started to address this through our
Scottish Climate Change Programme. But Government
cannot do it alone, we need to start changing public behaviour.
Our
do a little: change a lot campaign shows how small
changes to individual lifestyles can, collectively, make a big
difference for the environment.
"Despite these efforts, we must face up to the fact that
past and present emissions of greenhouse gases will influence
the future climate and that every element of Scottish society
will need to take action to adapt to those changes.
"The future climate is not certain but these latest
scenarios give us an indication of what Scotland could be like
by the end of the century. The forecasts show that we need to
adapt and this is a priority issue for Government in Scotland
and the UK. I am working with UK Government Ministers to
develop a joined-up approach to climate change adaptation
throughout the UK.
"It is important that everyone is aware of these predicted
changes and takes action to adapt to them. Failure to adapt,
and failure to move toward a low carbon economy in the future,
will leave Scotland vulnerable to climate chaos. We all must do
our bit to prevent that."
Key predictions for Scotland for the 2080s include:
- sea level is set to rise around Scotland, perhaps by up to
60 cm over the next 80 years;
- the total rainfall in 24 hours from storms which are
expected to occur on average every two years in Scotland at
present may increase, perhaps by up to 25 per cent,
particularly in the east of Scotland;
- summers may become generally drier across Scotland. There
may only be a slight reduction in rainfall in the north-west
but as much as a 40 per cent reduction in the south and
east;
- Scotland will become warmer and may be up to 3.5 degrees C
warmer on average during the summer months, and around 2.5
degrees C warmer during the winter. The growing season may be
between 30 and 80 days longer; and
- average snowfall amounts will decrease, perhaps by up to
90 per cent depending on location, and snowless winters may
become normal in some parts.
The
UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) was established by the UK Government in 1997, and is
designed to encourage a wide range of stakeholders to be
involved in the assessment of climate change impacts and
adaptation in the UK. UKCIP provides a co-ordinated framework
for assessing domestic climate change impacts and adaptation
strategies, and provides the fundamental tools for carrying out
impact assessments.
The scenarios, published today, is the first release of
information and accompanying data from the 2002 UK climate
change scenarios produced for the UK Climate Impacts Programme.
They replace an earlier set of
UKCIP scenarios published in 1998.
The scenarios were based on four contrasting scenarios of
future greenhouse gas emissions derived from the work of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The emission
scenarios were used to drive a regional climate change model
with a resolution of 50 km. The scenarios were produced by a
team led by Dr Geoff Jenkins at the Hadley Centre for Climate
Change Prediction (part of the Met Office) and Dr Mike Hulme at
the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research at the
University of East Anglia in Norwich.
Whilst the scenarios forecast the most likely future climate
for the UK based on current scientific knowledge it should be
noted that there are a number of reasons why we cannot be
completely confident about the predictions of future climate
change. For example, we do not know how levels of greenhouse
gas emissions will change in the future - this will depend on
how society changes in the next few decades. There are also
uncertainties associated with the models used to produce the
climate change scenarios.
The scenario results are published in a Briefing Report and
a fuller Science Report which can be found at:
http://www.ukcip.org.uk/scenarios
The Executive's
do a little: change a lot environmental awareness
campaign aims to encourage everyone to play their role in
protecting the environment, for example by reducing energy
consumption and minimising waste. Television and press
advertising reaches over 80 per cent of the population and
shows the impact of everyday actions. Partnerships with utility
and oil companies have been developed to make the campaign as
far reaching as possible, and a website
www.dochange.net is also available.