The Scottish Government

'Scotland's Future'

First Minister Jack McConnell MSP

Scottish Parliament, Holyrood

Scotland's Future

Wednesday, September 6, 2006

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I am very pleased to open this debate on the future of Scotland at the end of a summer that has seen hundreds of thousands of visitors enjoying Scotland's good weather and record breaking festivals and events.

Scotland's visitor attractions have been busier than usual, Scottish culture - traditional and non traditional - has been displayed to greater numbers in every part of Scotland, and our beaches and countryside have stunned thousands.

And Scotland's pubs, clubs and restaurants have, for the first time ever, been smoke free.

This is a great time to visit, study, live, or work in Scotland.

But today's debate is very deliberately about the Future - and the choices that face us in the months and years ahead. Choices that will determine the shape of our society, the nature of our economy and the state of our environment two decades from now.

The Futures Project - Thinking Long Term

We are entering the most creative time in democratic politics.

When, political parties fight for the hearts and minds of voters - and attempt to win the battle of ideas.

This is an exciting time to be a member Scotland's Parliament.

But first of all. I want to be absolutely clear about this government's record. To report to the people of Scotland not just what we have done. But on the results.

Firstly - the economy. It is the first priority of this government to grow the Scottish economy.

We have cut business rates, invested in colleges and universities, we've built and are building new railways, bought new trains, opened new stations, supported dozens of new international air routes; aggressively promoted Scottish companies overseas and attracted new workers to boost the labour market.

And the result is Scotland's economy has grown around or above trend rate since the last election. We have the highest employment rate in the UK and we are closer to full employment than almost anyone in Europe.

Secondly - education. There are brand new school buildings, more teachers, smaller class sizes, top quality nursery places for every 3 and 4 year old and higher expectations for excellence in the classroom.

And the result is that attainment in Scottish schools is rising - with international comparisons now showing that Scottish 15 year olds are among the best performing in the world in maths, literacy and science.

Thirdly - health. Increased investment, more nurses, more doctors, more consultants, better buildings and equipment, a focus on the killer diseases. And leading the UK on hospital cleanliness and infection.

The results continue to defy the critics. Once again the best waiting time performance ever. Deaths from heart disease, stroke and cancer down.

Fourthly - crime. There are new powers to tackle anti social behaviour, more police, community wardens to back them up and an improved, effective court system.

And the result is crime is down - recorded crime is down another 5% in the last 12 months, clear up rates are up and communities are fighting back against the misery of antisocial behaviour.

And perhaps the biggest result of all.

Through working in partnership with Westminster, the number of Scots living in poverty has been cut. Particularly the number of children.

Since the Tories left office nearly 250,000 Scottish children have been lifted from absolute poverty, reducing absolute child poverty by 65 per cent

And critically the gap has narrowed too. Children living in relative poverty has been cut by a third.

And yet there are some who wonder what the Scottish Parliament has achieved.

Without this Parliament, and without this government, Scotland could never have been the first place in the UK to implement a smoking ban.

Or the first place in the UK to have comprehensive enterprise education in every classroom, for every child.

Or created Project Scotland a national full time volunteering scheme for young people.

Or increased re-cycling from 5 per cent to 23 per cent.

We wouldn't be able to proudly boast that our school pupils get the best school dinners in the UK.

Who would have signed a co-operation agreement with Malawi if this Parliament - or for that matter, this government - did not exist?

Who would have stood up to promote multi-culturalism or welcome hard working migrants to Scotland?

The fact is - Scotland is a far better place than it was before devolution. And it is a better place than it was in 2003 too.

And frankly - I do not believe for a second that the vast majority of that would have been delivered by anyone else sitting in these government seats.

The Futures Project - Thinking Long Term

Futures

The government's record is the starting point for today's debate.

Seven years into devolution, we are a stable and mature Parliament and government.

Now is the time - not to consider what has held us back for the past 20 years - but to consider what will take us forward in the next 20 years.

Two years ago, the Scottish government set up a Futures Project.

Along with others - including the Parliament's own Futures Forum led by the Presiding Officer, we are building a better understanding of what Scotland must do to succeed and prosper 20 years from now.

The Futures Project is not trying to predict the future with certainty. It is about Scotland's place and positioning.

To determine our place, we conducted a Strategic Audit to bench mark Scotland internationally.

The Strategic Audit shows that Scotland compares very well internationally on some indicators - like education and research; we are mid ranking on many; and we compare poorly on a few.

There will be some in this chamber who will cherry pick the worst of those statistics to run down Scotland.

Doing so misses the point. No country can claim everything is good, or everything is bad.

To me the evidence demonstrates clearly that poverty and inequality are at the root of Scotland's greatest weaknesses. Despite the significant progress in cutting poverty in recent years - we must remain resolved to abolish child poverty by 2020.

The second part of the Project sets out the likely trends that may continue or emerge in the next twenty years. Our job is to make sure Scotland is best positioned to respond.

Trends like globalisation, trends in governance, sustainability, employment, technology and others.

The Futures Project - Thinking Long Term

The trends paint a complex picture:

We can be relatively certain of an increasing pace of technological change, of an increasingly knowledge based economy, of growing disposable incomes and more consumer choice.

While the global economy marches on, we can expect an increasing pressure on primary resources, and the environment too.

We can also be certain of comparatively low birth rates; a population living longer but not necessarily healthier. It is likely that more people will live on their own; families may be less stable with more transitions.

The Strategic Audit identifies the current target we need to aim for - eliminating poverty, but the Trends papers show that the target will be a moving target.

And the Project as a whole tells us to expect momentous change in the next 20 years indicating that we need to make choices about how to ensure Scotland will compete.

That work has been widely published, and is recognised as a model of its kind.

Conclusions

Ultimately, this kind of analysis must lead us to conclusions. And some fundamental choices too.

There is little doubt that globalisation is the 'mega trend' that has the potential to eclipse all others.

We can expect ever-greater global connections in the next 20 years - knowledge transfer, greater movements of people and more trading of goods and services.

And as our world becomes smaller, there is increasing global uncertainty from terrorism, increasing tensions between different ways of life and from the threat of pandemics in an interdependent world.

As the Futures Project has shown, the security challenge is more likely to increase than diminish.

So, values will increasingly matter too. It is the job of Scotland's politicians - on all sides - to take a lead and promote tolerance and respect for different people, their cultures and their religions.

But for both the challenge - and the opportunity - of increasing interdependence, the task for Scotland's Parliament and government is to equip Scots with the skills that are globally useful - in languages, technology and science.

Education and Learning - Scotland's Strategy for the Future

Whatever the future may throw up at us - for me, it's clear that knowledge and skills are the primary way to enhance Scotland's competitive advantage over the next 20 years and beyond.

An educated population will be able to adapt and respond better to the challenges and opportunities of that future.

So my absolute conclusion - is that continuous, high quality learning and education has to be Scotland's strategy for the future.

Our history and our instincts tell us that learning is the best tool we have to improve the life chances of all Scots.

Education is the purist form of investment. Investment in human potential.

The Futures Project - Thinking Long Term

Education is an escape route out of poverty. It open up choices and opportunities for people. It can break the link between the poor life chances of the parents and those of the child.

Education is the only investment which drives all things.

It drives productivity and economic prosperity, it promotes social cohesion and cultural development.

Scotland has one of the best educations systems in the world but we need it to be the best in the world.

A truly world class education system that will serve people throughout their lives. Our ambition is to have the best education system in the world by 2020.

So, we must finish the job we have started, and build upon it.

We must complete the school building programme - to ensure our school buildings are the best in the world.

We will train more teachers - so Scotland's teaching profession is the best in the world.

We need even more vocational options in schools, so young Scots have the best choices in the world.

And we can drive up standards and ambitions through more Schools of Ambition.

We will support Scottish universities and colleges who are already among the best in the world.

And we must stay true to our commitment: reducing the number of young Scots not in education, employment or training IS a national priority.

The Futures Project - Thinking Long Term

The Choice

So Presiding Officer, Scotland faces a choice of two futures.

For three centuries a proud nation has chosen to unite with its neighbour. Never losing one ounce of its pride, its sense of heritage, its patriotism, its distinctiveness, but playing a massive part in the culture, the science and the public affairs of the United Kingdom.

Now this is overlaid with Home Rule, a Scottish Parliament with sole charge of those matters best handled here - while Scots elected to Westminster continue to influence those matters best handled there.

Scotland can choose to continue this path. To continue its heritage of leadership of the UK, of providing cabinet ministers and sporting heroes and academic brilliance and broadcasters and all the other opportunities that the UK gives Scots and that have enabled Scots to enrich Britain.

Within the security of Britain's macroeconomy, with a global influence that cannot be ignored, and continuing leadership on international development; we can continue to turn around our national health, make our communities safer, and support Scottish families in their aspirations to own a home, to travel, to combine parenthood with a fulfilling career.

And above all we have the power, the resources and the imagination to create the best education system in the world. All this without losing one iota of what makes us a nation.

Or Scotland can choose a different path.

The Futures Project - Thinking Long Term

We can spend years debating the merits of statehood, while businesses withdraw and financial institutions stall.

We can spend further years disputing the minutiae of divorce, from central banks and pension funds to broadcasters and passports.

We can contemplate leaving the G8 and the Security Council, and have a much-reduced say in Europe; with an economy at the whim of a product whose price volatility we see all too clearly today.

Each and every step on that path would distract us from Scotland's greatest mission. To give every young Scot the opportunity of the best education in the world.

So Presiding Officer, I welcome a debate about the future of our nation.

I want what is best for Scotland - my Scotland - and I repudiate those who argue that only separatists are true patriots.

The patriotic choice for Scotland is to do the right thing for our children and their future.

There is nothing, nothing, more satisfying or inspiring than to see a young mind grasp the opportunities for learning.

To see a young person learn basic knowledge, develop creative skills, realise the potential of cultural experiences and become more confident, more understanding and more ambitious as a result. And I want that for all of Scotland's children.

Learning is Scotland's strategy for the future.

Because it changes lives, lifts people out of poverty, widens horizons and it will make our small nation stronger in a difficult and challenging world.

The best small country in the world should have the best education system in the world, and with the right decisions and the right choices we can have that within our grasp again.

The Futures Project - Thinking Long Term