Scottish Government

Reduce greenhouse gas emissions

DESCRIPTION:

To reduce greenhouse gas emissions over the period to 2011. To reduce greenhouse emissions by 80% by 2050.

The indicator aims to monitor the contribution that Scotland is making to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases.

The short term target is a comparative measure of reductions in net greenhouse gas emissions which occur during the term of this Government to 2011.

The long term target is an 80% reduction in net greenhouse gas emissions from a baseline of 1990, mirroring the requirement of the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009.

The Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009 also includes an interim target of a 42% reduction from the 1990 baseline by 2020 in addition to the need to set annual targets from 2010.

The Scottish Parliament has passed legislation setting annual targets for the years 2010-2027. These can be found at:
The Climate Change (Annual Targets) (Scotland) Order 2010
The Climate Change (Annual Targets) (Scotland) Order 2011

SOURCE:

All the targets will use the National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (NAEI) disaggregated greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory and estimates of greenhouse gas emissions from international aviation and shipping as the main evidence source.

• NAEI Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reports

Information on trading in carbon units under the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) are collected by the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and the Environment Agency (EA).

The inventory data are those currently published by AEA (Environment) under contract to Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC), Scottish Government (SG), Welsh Government and Department of the Environment in Northern Ireland. AEA conduct detailed quality assurance. The disaggregated data are not National Statistics, but the UK data on which the disaggregations are made are National Statistics.

Detailed data on carbon units traded in the EU ETS are collected by the EA.

Statistics on adjusted emissions will be published in the environment statistics section of the SG website:
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Environment

The emissions figures are those published in "Greenhouse gas inventories for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland" on the NAEI website.

• NAEI Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reports

The indicator will use the sum of the greenhouse gas emissions assigned to Scotland in the disaggregated greenhouse gas inventory (taking account of any removals such as those resulting from afforestation) and the emissions from international aviation and shipping, expressed as tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent. Changes to the estimation methodology may result in changes to the published emission figures for previous years.

This figure will be adjusted to take account of carbon trading by comparing the number of carbon units surrendered with the nominal allocation of units to Scotland. For the period 2005-2007 (Phase I of the EU ETS), in addition to units allocated to individual sites, Scotland will also take responsibility for a share of any UK allocation that is auctioned. The share to be used will equate to: Allocated units to Scottish sites/Allocated units to UK sites. The allocated units to be used will be those allocated for the year in which the auction takes place. For Phase I of the EU ETS, where a small amount of unused units from the New Entry Reserve were auctioned in 2007 (and where DECC have allocated the sales equally over the period 2005-2007), the units to be used will be those allocated for the whole of Phase I.

Nominal Scottish allocations for the period 2008-2020 have been published by the Committee in Climate Change in Table 1.4 of the Technical Appendix accompanying their report "Scotland's path to a low-carbon economy" ( http://downloads.theccc.org.uk/Scottish%20report/Technical%20Appendix%20Scotland%20v2.pdf). The nominal allocations for the period 2010-2012 were published in May 2010 as "specified amounts" in "The Carbon Accounting Scheme (Scotland) Regulations 2010" ( http://www.opsi.gov.uk/legislation/scotland/ssi2010/pdf/ssi_20100216_en.pdf).

The regulations require Scottish Ministers to determine whether the total amount of carbon units surrendered in respect of Scotland as a result of the operation of the EU ETS in the relevant period for that year is more or less than the specified amount. Sites are require to surrender units to equate to their emissions in a given year. In some cases units surrendered may not match emissions - for example due to operator error double the units necessary may be surrendered - in such cases the shortfall/excess is offset the following year. For such sites, rather than simply use the number of units surrendered we have used the number of units necessary to be surrendered to satisfy EU ETS compliance for the reporting year which equates to the amount emitted. As for other sites the number of units surrendered already equates to emissions, the effect is to compare actual emissions from ETS sites with the specified amount.

In summary, net greenhouse gas emissions are thus computed:

Net greenhouse gas emissions =

greenhouse gas emissions + units allocated - ETS emissions

DEFINITIONS:

For this target, as for the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009, the greenhouse gases are carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and the F-gases - hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride.

" Emissions" include domestic emissions allocated to Scotland together with emissions allocated to Scotland from international aviation and international shipping as published on the National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory website.

Here "net emissions" means those emissions taking into account both carbon sinks and trading in carbon, as detailed in the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009 and subsequent secondary legislation.

BASELINE AND PAST TRENDS:

Baseline period:

For the long term target 1990 will be used as the base year for carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide, and 1995 for all other gases - In common with international requirements and the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009.

2006 will be used as the baseline year for the short term target for all gases. This target is intended to reflect the emission reductions made during the lifetime of this administration.

Baseline figure:

57.4 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent for the short term target

71.8 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent for the long term target

(Note that these targets may be revised following annual revisions to the GHG inventory.)

Scottish greenhouse gas emissions in million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent:

CRITERIA FOR RECENT CHANGE ARROW:

The evaluation is based on the % change in the tonnage of emissions. If the change is less than ±1% of the previous years figure, this suggests that the emission levels are more likely to have been maintained, rather than showing change. A decrease in the tonnage of more than 1% suggests that the position is improving; whereas an increase in the tonnage of more than 1% suggests the position is worsening.

For information on general methodological approach, please click here.

FUTURE ISSUES OR REVIEWS:

The indicator will not be updated to take account of revisions to historic data when emissions and removals from the Land use, Land use change and Forestry sector for the subsequent year's inventory are separately published. The target update will await the completion in July of the full inventory for Scotland.

The methodology used to estimate greenhouse gas emissions is under continuous review and each year any changes introduced are applied to the whole time series. The changes might also include additional routes of emissions that were not previously identified. This means that emissions could appear to increase or decrease when compared with previous years' publications. In 2011, emission figures for 2009 were published in September. We are aiming to shorten this period over the next few years. In 2012, emission figures for 2010 will be published in July. From 2013, emission figures for year x-2 will be published in May.

ASSOCIATED TARGET:

Target: To reduce greenhouse gas emissions over the period to 2011. To reduce greenhouse emissions by 80% by 2050.

For more information on this target please see the Government Economic Strategy:

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/Doc/357756/0120893.pdf

End point: 2050 for the long term target and 2011 for the short term target.